The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought ASML in 2015?
By 2015 ASML's monopoly on next-generation EUV lithography was clear to insiders and almost no one else. The quietest compounder in tech, hiding in plain sight on a foreign exchange.
$100 on 2015-01-02, worth today
US$1,940
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of ASML bought at 2015's open (US$96.07) is worth US$1,940 — 19.4×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of ASML bought in 2015 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$1,940 | 19.4× |
| US$1,000 | US$19,398 | 19.4× |
| US$10,000 | US$193,982 | 19.4× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did ASML do in 2015?
Opened
US$96.07
2015-01-02
Peaked
US$102.56
2015-05-28
Bottomed
US$74.87
2015-09-28
Closed
US$80.00
2015-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$59,800 deployed as $100 a week from 2015-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$1.2M |
| Steady weekly buys | US$502,478 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$488,716 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$1.1M |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2015's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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