The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought ASML in 2020?
As the global chip shortage hit, the world realised every advanced processor on Earth depends on machines only ASML can build. The year the most important company most people had never heard of stopped being a secret.
$100 on 2020-01-02, worth today
US$652
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of ASML bought at 2020's open (US$285.90) is worth US$652 — 6.52×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of ASML bought in 2020 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$652 | 6.52× |
| US$1,000 | US$6,518 | 6.52× |
| US$10,000 | US$65,182 | 6.52× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did ASML do in 2020?
Opened
US$285.90
2020-01-02
Peaked
US$466.67
2020-12-30
Bottomed
US$185.98
2020-03-18
Closed
US$464.58
2020-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$33,700 deployed as $100 a week from 2020-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$219,662 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$106,049 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$108,729 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$175,215 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2020's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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