The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Visa in 2009?
Freshly public and split-adjusted around $13, Visa was a brand-new listing into the worst market in living memory. It doesn't lend or take credit risk — it just clips a fee on swipes — and that toll booth was about to prove almost recession-proof.
$100 on 2009-01-02, worth today
US$2,736
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Visa bought at 2009's open (US$11.78) is worth US$2,736 — 27.4×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Visa bought in 2009 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$2,736 | 27.4× |
| US$1,000 | US$27,359 | 27.4× |
| US$10,000 | US$273,590 | 27.4× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Visa do in 2009?
Opened
US$11.78
2009-01-02
Peaked
US$19.75
2009-12-18
Bottomed
US$9.35
2009-01-20
Closed
US$19.41
2009-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$91,100 deployed as $100 a week from 2009-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$2.5M |
| Steady weekly buys | US$578,969 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$366,780 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$664,540 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2009's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
These were the round numbers. Run your real ones.
Your amount, your date, your certificate. Takes about a minute.
Calculate my failureAdjacent timelines