The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Eli Lilly in 2018?
A staid, century-old pharma name opening 2018 around $85 — solid, dividend-paying, deeply boring. Tirzepatide was an experimental diabetes molecule years from a brand name. Nobody was buying Lilly for a weight-loss revolution that didn't exist yet.
$100 on 2018-01-02, worth today
US$1,513
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Eli Lilly bought at 2018's open (US$74.90) is worth US$1,513 — 15.1×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Eli Lilly bought in 2018 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$1,513 | 15.1× |
| US$1,000 | US$15,127 | 15.1× |
| US$10,000 | US$151,273 | 15.1× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Eli Lilly do in 2018?
Opened
US$74.90
2018-01-02
Peaked
US$107.57
2018-11-30
Bottomed
US$65.64
2018-02-08
Closed
US$104.92
2018-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$44,100 deployed as $100 a week from 2018-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$667,113 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$250,467 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$130,782 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$256,646 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2018's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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