The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought PayPal in 2023?
Down roughly 80% from its 2021 high and written off as a victim of Apple, competition and its own bloat. The 'fallen angel' year, bought purely on the bet that a payments giant doesn't simply disappear.
$100 on 2023-01-03, worth today
US$56
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of PayPal bought at 2023's open (US$73.94) is worth US$56 — 0.56×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of PayPal bought in 2023 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$56 | 0.56× |
| US$1,000 | US$562 | 0.56× |
| US$10,000 | US$5,617 | 0.56× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did PayPal do in 2023?
Opened
US$73.94
2023-01-03
Peaked
US$86.21
2023-02-02
Bottomed
US$49.96
2023-10-27
Closed
US$60.88
2023-12-29
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$18,000 deployed as $100 a week from 2023-01-03, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$10,110 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$11,710 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$14,235 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$21,893 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2023's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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