The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Pilbara Minerals in 2016?
Pilbara Minerals began 2016 as a tiny explorer with a feasibility study for its Pilgangoora hard-rock lithium project and a share price measured in cents. The electric-vehicle boom was about to turn that backwater into one of the world's great spodumene mines.
$100 on 2016-01-03, worth today
A$2,468
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Pilbara Minerals bought at 2016's open (A$0.264) is worth A$2,468 — 24.7×.
total return · dividends reinvested · AUD
How much would $100 of Pilbara Minerals bought in 2016 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| A$100 | A$2,468 | 24.7× |
| A$1,000 | A$24,678 | 24.7× |
| A$10,000 | A$246,783 | 24.7× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Pilbara Minerals do in 2016?
Opened
A$0.264
2016-01-03
Peaked
A$0.766
2016-05-11
Bottomed
A$0.229
2016-01-11
Closed
A$0.440
2016-12-29
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
A$54,600 deployed as $100 a week from 2016-01-03, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | A$1.3M |
| Steady weekly buys | A$488,873 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | A$274,258 |
| Traded it perfectly | A$14.5M |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2016's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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