The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Woolworths in 2016?
The Masters hardware disaster was being wound up at a multi-billion-dollar loss and Aldi was eating the bottom of the basket. The 'safe' supermarket stock had just had its worst year in memory — which, with hindsight, was the interesting bit.
$100 on 2016-01-03, worth today
A$267
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Woolworths bought at 2016's open (A$14.37) is worth A$267 — 2.67×.
total return · dividends reinvested · AUD
How much would $100 of Woolworths bought in 2016 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| A$100 | A$267 | 2.67× |
| A$1,000 | A$2,668 | 2.67× |
| A$10,000 | A$26,677 | 2.67× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Woolworths do in 2016?
Opened
A$14.37
2016-01-03
Peaked
A$15.65
2016-10-20
Bottomed
A$12.48
2016-07-06
Closed
A$14.92
2016-12-29
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
A$54,600 deployed as $100 a week from 2016-01-03, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | A$145,655 |
| Steady weekly buys | A$88,087 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | A$43,852 |
| Traded it perfectly | A$88,087 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2016's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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