The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Rio Tinto in 2009?
Rio entered 2009 crushed by debt from its top-of-the-market Alcan deal and a collapsing iron ore price, flirting with a controversial Chinalco rescue it ultimately abandoned. From this near-disaster, the China construction boom did the rest.
$100 on 2009-01-01, worth today
A$1,426
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Rio Tinto bought at 2009's open (A$12.93) is worth A$1,426 — 14.3×.
total return · dividends reinvested · AUD
How much would $100 of Rio Tinto bought in 2009 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| A$100 | A$1,426 | 14.3× |
| A$1,000 | A$14,256 | 14.3× |
| A$10,000 | A$142,556 | 14.3× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Rio Tinto do in 2009?
Opened
A$12.93
2009-01-01
Peaked
A$32.16
2009-12-30
Bottomed
A$12.36
2009-01-20
Closed
A$32.16
2009-12-30
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
A$91,100 deployed as $100 a week from 2009-01-01, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | A$1.3M |
| Steady weekly buys | A$414,174 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | A$219,927 |
| Traded it perfectly | A$614,500 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2009's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
These were the round numbers. Run your real ones.
Your amount, your date, your certificate. Takes about a minute.
Calculate my failureAdjacent timelines