The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Visa in 2020?
The year COVID briefly throttled travel spend and the bears declared the swipe-fee machine finally cornered. Visa opened around $188; payments kept migrating to plastic and phones, and the toll booth kept collecting.
$100 on 2020-01-02, worth today
US$177
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Visa bought at 2020's open (US$182.43) is worth US$177 — 1.77×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Visa bought in 2020 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$177 | 1.77× |
| US$1,000 | US$1,767 | 1.77× |
| US$10,000 | US$17,672 | 1.77× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Visa do in 2020?
Opened
US$182.43
2020-01-02
Peaked
US$210.07
2020-12-31
Bottomed
US$129.76
2020-03-23
Closed
US$210.07
2020-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$33,700 deployed as $100 a week from 2020-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$59,554 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$46,248 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$37,308 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$52,520 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2020's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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